Projected vs. Certified Election Results: What a Race Call Means

Status as of 9:45 a.m. ET Monday, Nov. 2. This explainer is based on published guidance from The Associated Press, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, the National Association of Secretaries of State, the National Conference of State Legislatures and state election offices. No votes have been counted in the Nov. 3 general election.

This guide to projected vs. certified election results explains what it means when a news organization “calls” a race on election night, why that call is not an official result, and what happens between the call and the final, certified count. Polls close on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

What happened

A race call is a decision by a news organization’s analysts that one candidate has won a contest. It is not an official result. The U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) says results reported on election night “are not final even though the media may call the projected winner of races,” and that “only election officials provide official election results.”

The Associated Press, whose race calls are used by many news outlets, says it will declare winners in about 5,000 contested races in a U.S. general election. AP describes its calls as declarations, not forecasts. “AP does not make projections or name apparent or likely winners,” it says in its explainer on how AP declares winners. Other news organizations run their own decision desks, and AP says race calls made by other organizations “have no bearing” on when it declares a winner.

How AP decides a race is over

AP says it calls a race only when it is fully confident the race has been won, “defined most simply as the moment the trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory.” Its Decision Team looks at how many votes have been counted, how many remain and what kinds of ballots are still outstanding.

The vote counts come from AP’s own reporting network. AP says more than 4,000 vote count reporters are stationed at county election offices and local precincts on election night, close to 1,000 vote entry clerks take their reports, and its goal is at least two sources for the vote totals from every county. AP also publishes an “expected vote” estimate of how many ballots remain to be counted, which it says “can and will fluctuate” as tabulation goes on.

Too early to call vs. too close to call

AP uses two different labels for races it has not called. A race is “too early to call” while ballots are still being counted, whatever the margin. It becomes “too close to call” when the main count is essentially finished, with only provisional and late-arriving absentee ballots left, and there is still no clear winner. AP says that even when almost all ballots are counted, it may not call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is “generally less than 0.5 percentage points.”

The timing of a call can vary widely. AP declared Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 presidential election at 11:26 a.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 7, four days after Election Day. In 2024, it called Donald Trump the winner at 5:34 a.m. ET in the early morning hours after Election Day.

Latest development

With Election Day one day away, LiveNewsWorld’s 2026 midterm election live results page will use five status labels for every race. Here is what each one means.

• Uncounted: no results have been reported yet.
• Counting: partial results are in, and no news organization has called the race.
• Leading: a candidate is ahead in a partial count. This is not a win, and the lead can change as mail and provisional ballots are counted.
• Projected winner: a named news organization, such as AP, has declared a winner. We always say who made the call.
• Official / Certified: election officials have certified the result. This can take days or weeks after Election Day.

A candidate who is leading the count is never marked as the winner on our pages. LiveNewsWorld does not run its own decision desk, does not make race calls and does not estimate vote totals.

Concessions and victory claims

Concession speeches and victory declarations are news, but they are not results. AP says that if a candidate claims victory or concedes before AP calls the race, it reports that development while making clear that AP has not declared a winner. “Concessions are not legally binding,” AP says, and it notes that concessions “can be, and have been, withdrawn.”

How control of Congress is called

A party needs 218 seats for a House majority and 51 Senate seats, or 50 if the vice president belongs to that party. AP says it will report that a party has won control of a chamber only after it has declared 218 House winners or 51 (or 50) Senate winners for that party. “We do not use statistical models to predict which party will ultimately take control,” AP says.

Why it matters

Election night tallies are unofficial even when they look complete. The EAC says that “even when those results say ‘100% Precincts Reporting,’ they are still unofficial.”

Why counts change after election night

Totals keep moving during the canvass, the formal process in which local officials reconcile and verify ballots. The EAC says the canvass accounts for mail, early, Election Day, military and overseas, and provisional ballots. Most states also require a post-election audit to check that voting equipment counted votes correctly, the EAC says.

North Carolina’s State Board of Elections gives a concrete example in its reporters’ primer for the 2026 general election. After Election Day, eligible provisional ballots, absentee ballots that have been cured and mailed military and overseas ballots received by 5 p.m. Nov. 12 are still added to the count, while ballots that fail eligibility challenges can be removed. “No election ends on Election Day, and results reported on election night are always unofficial,” the board says, adding that this is normal, “though typically these processes do not change contest outcomes.” Our explainer on what a provisional ballot is covers one of the main reasons totals shift.

How recounts work

Recount rules are set by each state. The National Conference of State Legislatures reports that 26 states, plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, have automatic recounts, most commonly triggered by a margin of 0.5%, and that 41 states plus D.C. allow a recount to be requested.

Examples from the National Association of Secretaries of State summary of state canvass and certification laws: Michigan requires an automatic recount for statewide office when the margin is 2,000 votes or less; Pennsylvania requires one when a statewide candidate loses by 0.5% or less; and Arizona requires one when the gap between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less. Wisconsin has no automatic recount, but a trailing candidate may request one, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission media guide. In North Carolina, a trailing statewide candidate may request a recount if the margin is 0.5% or 10,000 votes, whichever is fewer, the state board says.

Recounts rarely change outcomes, AP says. It counts at least 37 recounts in statewide races since 2000, with the outcome changing in three, all decided by hundreds of votes. AP says it may call a race that could face a recount if the lead in raw votes is too large for a recount to overturn. In 2020, it declared Biden the winner in Wisconsin with a lead of more than 20,000 votes; a recount in the state’s two most populous counties produced a net gain of 87 votes for Biden.

When a call is wrong

AP says its race-calling accuracy has exceeded 99.9% across tens of thousands of races in recent election cycles. When a call is wrong, AP says it withdraws the declaration in its data feed and alerts its customers and audience. Its last erroneous call in a presidential race came in a 2008 primary.

What happens next

Certification is the final step. The EAC describes it as a written statement in which election officials attest that the results are “a true and accurate accounting of all votes cast,” and it explains the steps in its guide to election results, canvass and certification. Who certifies, and when, depends on state law. Some examples from official state sources:

• Georgia: counties report results by the second Friday after the election, and the Secretary of State must certify state and federal results no later than 17 days after the election (NASS).
• Michigan: counties must finish their canvass within 14 days, and the Board of State Canvassers meets by the 20th day and must finish by the 40th day (NASS).
• Pennsylvania: counties must certify their returns to the Secretary of the Commonwealth no later than Nov. 25 (NASS).
• Arizona: the Secretary of State certifies state and federal results on the third Monday after the election (NASS).
• North Carolina: county canvass meetings are set for Nov. 13 and the state canvass for Nov. 24 (State Board of Elections).
• Wisconsin: the chair of the Elections Commission must certify results by Dec. 1 (Wisconsin Elections Commission).

Recounts can push certification later. New Hampshire certifies only after the recount deadline passes, and West Virginia counties certify within 30 days of the election or within 30 days of finishing a recount, the EAC says.

For the expected counting pace in key states, see our guide to when 2026 midterm results will be known. Members of Congress elected on Tuesday take office at noon on Jan. 3, 2027, under the 20th Amendment.

Related live coverage

Follow every contested seat on our US Senate elections 2026 results page and our 2026 House election results page. Find every guide in the US Midterm Elections 2026 hub, and follow Washington news on US Politics Live.

Sources

• The Associated Press: How we declare winners; How AP counts the vote (AP Elections pages, accessed Nov. 2, 2026)
• U.S. Election Assistance Commission: Election Results, Canvass, and Certification
• National Association of Secretaries of State: Summary of State Laws on Canvass and Certification (October 2024); National Conference of State Legislatures: Election Recounts (updated Oct. 19, 2026)
• North Carolina State Board of Elections: Reporters’ primer for the 2026 general election (Oct. 27, 2026); Wisconsin Elections Commission: Media guide for the 2026 general election
• National Archives: Constitution, 20th Amendment. Sources last updated 9:45 a.m. ET Monday, Nov. 2, 2026.