Key Points
- Ether finished the 14 October UTC day at $2,418.66 on Coinbase, down 3.09%, and traded near $2,346 at 7:04 p.m. PKT (10:04 a.m. ET) on Thursday, below Wednesday’s low.
- CoinDesk reported about $286 million in ether futures liquidations over 24 hours, citing CoinGlass, as hotter September U.S. inflation revived talk of another Fed rate increase.
- The 14 October close sat 7.4% below the 20-day average ($2,612.27) and 5.4% below the 50-day ($2,555.47), but 13.0% above the 200-day ($2,140.45). The 14-day RSI is 37.7.
- Next checkpoints: the Fed meeting on 27 and 28 October, then October CPI on 10 November and producer prices on 13 November.
Ether extended its slide on Thursday as traders absorbed a second straight day of hot U.S. inflation data. Crypto trades around the clock, so this Ethereum price forecast uses two anchors: the last completed UTC daily candle (14 October) for every calculated indicator, and a delayed spot quote taken at 7:04 p.m. PKT for context. The intraday 15 October candle is still open and is not treated as a close.
Market Overview
On Coinbase, ether (ETH/USD) closed the 14 October UTC day at $2,418.66, down $77.17, or 3.09%, from $2,495.83 a day earlier. Yahoo Finance’s ETH-USD series showed a matching $2,418.21 close, a difference of about 0.02%. The 14 October session ranged from $2,527.60 to $2,400.77, and that low is also the bottom of the past 20 sessions.
Selling continued into Thursday. At 7:04 p.m. PKT (14:04 UTC, 10:04 a.m. ET), Coinbase quoted ether at $2,346.25 and CoinGecko showed $2,340.77. The 15 October candle had reached a low of $2,313.07 on Coinbase by that time. That puts the token roughly 3% below Wednesday’s close in the current UTC day, on top of Wednesday’s loss.
Data note: daily candles from the Coinbase Exchange public API (UTC days) through the 14 October close, cross-checked against Yahoo Finance. Averages, RSI, MACD and pivots are LiveNewsWorld calculations from completed candles only. Intraday figures are a snapshot and will change.
Fundamental Analysis
What the data show
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Core prices rose 2.6% from a year earlier.
- On Thursday, the BLS reported that final-demand producer prices jumped 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, and 6.3% over 12 months. Our September PPI report has the details.
- CoinDesk reported that ether fell more than 6% over a 24-hour window early Thursday and that ether contracts accounted for about $286 million of liquidations, against about $197 million for bitcoin, citing CoinGlass data.
- The Fed set its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% at its September meeting. Its next policy meeting is scheduled for 27 and 28 October.
Our interpretation
Ether behaves like a high-beta risk asset when rate expectations move quickly. Two hot price reports in two days raise the chance that policy stays tighter for longer, which tends to pull money away from speculative assets and lift the cost of leverage. The liquidation figures matter because forced selling can push price through levels faster than spot demand alone would. Market-implied odds of an October rate increase have swung widely between sources and hours, so we do not quote a single probability here. For the policy backdrop, see our report on the September FOMC minutes.
Precious metals took a similar hit after the CPI report. Our COMEX silver forecast for 15 October covers that reaction.
Technical Analysis
All values below come from completed Coinbase daily candles through 14 October 2026.
- 20-day simple average: $2,612.27. The close is about 7.4% below it.
- 50-day simple average: $2,555.47. The close is about 5.4% below it.
- 200-day simple average: $2,140.45. The close is about 13.0% above it, so the longer-term trend measure is still positive.
- 14-day RSI: 37.7, weak but above the conventional oversold zone below 30.
- MACD (12, 26, 9): MACD line -27.59, signal line 6.00, histogram -33.59. The MACD line is below both zero and its signal line, a negative momentum reading.
- Classic pivot from the 14 October candle: pivot $2,449.01, first resistance $2,497.25, second resistance $2,575.84, first support $2,370.42, second support $2,322.18.
The intraday snapshot near $2,346 sits below first support at $2,370.42, and the session low of $2,313.07 briefly dipped under second support at $2,322.18. Until the UTC day closes, those breaks are provisional.
Scenarios
Bullish case. If ether recovers and closes a UTC day back above the 14 October low of $2,400.77 and then the daily pivot at $2,449.01, the selloff would look more like a liquidation flush than a new leg lower. First resistance at $2,497.25 and the 50-day average at $2,555.47 would then come into focus. This view is invalidated by a daily close below $2,322.18.
Bearish case. If the 15 October candle closes below second support at $2,322.18, the move would confirm a break of Wednesday’s calculated pivot range. In that case the 200-day average at $2,140.45 is the next major calculated reference below. This view is invalidated by a daily close back above the pivot at $2,449.01.
Neutral case. If price holds between $2,322.18 and $2,449.01 into the weekend while RSI stays in the high 30s, the market may be digesting the inflation data before the Fed meeting. A close outside that band in either direction would end the neutral view.
Key Levels
| Level | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 20-session high | $2,776.80 | Intraday high, 25 Sep to 14 Oct window |
| 20-day average | $2,612.27 | Simple average of daily closes |
| Pivot resistance R2 | $2,575.84 | Classic pivot, 14 October candle |
| 50-day average | $2,555.47 | Simple average of daily closes |
| Pivot resistance R1 | $2,497.25 | Classic pivot, 14 October candle |
| Daily pivot | $2,449.01 | Classic pivot, 14 October candle |
| 14 October close | $2,418.66 | Coinbase; Yahoo $2,418.21 |
| 14 October / 20-session low | $2,400.77 | Intraday low, Coinbase |
| Pivot support S1 | $2,370.42 | Classic pivot, 14 October candle |
| Pivot support S2 | $2,322.18 | Classic pivot, 14 October candle |
| 15 October low so far | $2,313.07 | In-progress candle, as of 7:04 p.m. PKT |
| 200-day average | $2,140.45 | Simple average of daily closes |
Events to Watch
- Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October: Federal Open Market Committee meeting, per the Federal Reserve’s 2026 calendar. A rate decision and statement follow on the second day.
- Sunday 1 November: U.S. clocks move back an hour, so 8:30 a.m. ET releases shift from 5:30 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. PKT.
- Tuesday 10 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT): October CPI, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule.
- Friday 13 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT): October producer price index, per the BLS release.
Follow related coverage on our Markets Live page.
Final Outlook
Ether ended 14 October below its 20-day and 50-day averages with negative MACD momentum and an RSI near 38, and Thursday’s trade pushed it below first support after a second hot U.S. inflation report. The working view is cautious while price stays under the daily pivot at $2,449.01. That view would be invalidated by a daily close back above $2,449.01, while a close below $2,322.18 would put the 200-day average at $2,140.45 in focus. The Fed meeting on 27 and 28 October is the next major checkpoint for rate-sensitive assets, crypto included.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary, September 2026; Producer Price Index news release, September 2026
- Federal Reserve Board, FOMC meeting calendars
- CoinDesk, “Nearly $1 billion in crypto bets liquidated as bitcoin, ether and XRP slide” and “Bitcoin wilts as Fed rate uncertainty weighs,” 15 October 2026
- Coinbase Exchange public market data (ETH-USD daily candles and spot quote); Yahoo Finance ETH-USD daily data; CoinGecko spot price, 15 October 2026
