Key Points
- COMEX December silver futures settled at $55.55 an ounce on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, down $3.61 or 6.10%, the largest one-day percentage drop in our data since June.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported September consumer prices up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months; gasoline rose 9.1% and made up over half of the monthly gain.
- The contract closed about 10% below its 20-day average ($61.75) and well below the 50-day ($64.10) and 200-day ($72.28) averages; the 14-day RSI is 30.2.
- Next catalysts: Thursday’s producer prices and retail sales (8:30 a.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PKT), the Fed meeting on 27 and 28 October, and October CPI on 10 November.
COMEX silver futures fell sharply on Wednesday after a hotter September inflation report lifted the dollar and Treasury yields. This outlook uses the 14 October settlement for the December contract. Futures trade nearly around the clock Sunday through Friday; the U.S. cash equity session reopens Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT). Quotes below are the previous session close, not a live U.S. cash price.
Market Overview
December COMEX silver (Yahoo symbol SI=F) settled at $55.55 a troy ounce on 14 October 2026, down $3.61, or 6.10%, from Tuesday’s $59.16 close. Dow Jones Market Data, carried by Morningstar, reported the same $55.550 settlement and 6.10% decline, confirming the figure. The session low printed at $55.50, which is also the 20-session low in our series. The session high was $56.75.
Kitco reported spot silver near $55.41 late in the U.S. session. Spot is not the futures settlement; we cite it only as a labeled cross-check that the physical market moved in the same direction. Gold futures (December COMEX) closed at $4,107.90, down 1.66%, so silver’s percentage move was roughly 3.7 times gold’s on the day. The 20-session range now runs from $55.50 to $66.94.
Data note: daily bars from Yahoo Finance (delayed, unofficial) for COMEX December silver through the 14 October close, cross-checked against Dow Jones/Morningstar COMEX silver settlement $55.550. Averages, RSI, MACD and pivots are LiveNewsWorld calculations. An in-progress 15 October bar is not a close.
Fundamental Analysis
What the data show
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.4% rise in August, and 3.7% over the past 12 months, up from 3.4% in the year to August.
- Gasoline rose 9.1% in September and accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase. The energy index is up 20.4% from a year earlier.
- The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month, the same as in August, and 2.6% over 12 months, up from 2.4%.
- The U.S. Treasury 10-year par yield ended 14 October at 5.19%, according to the official Treasury daily curve.
- Kitco, CME Group commentary and other major outlets described a precious-metals selloff as hotter inflation boosted the case for further Federal Reserve tightening and lifted the dollar.
Our interpretation
Higher expected policy rates and a firmer dollar raise the opportunity cost of holding silver, which pays no yield. Silver also carries industrial demand exposure, so any reading that keeps financing costs elevated can weigh on both the monetary and industrial bid. Market-implied odds of a late-October rate increase vary by source and by the hour, so we do not quote a single probability. For background, see our report on the September FOMC minutes.
Equity markets also sold off on the same print. Our Nasdaq-100 forecast for 15 October covers the index reaction. For how rates and the dollar typically feed into precious metals, see our explainer on what moves gold prices.
Technical Analysis
- 20-day simple average: $61.75. The close is about 10.0% below it.
- 50-day simple average: $64.10. The close is about 13.3% below it.
- 200-day simple average: $72.28. The close is about 23.1% below it.
- 14-day RSI: 30.2, near the conventional oversold zone below 30.
- MACD (12, 26, 9): MACD line -1.68, signal -1.26, histogram -0.42. Momentum remains negative.
- Classic pivot from the 14 October bar: pivot $55.93, first resistance $56.36, second resistance $57.18, first support $55.12, second support $54.69.
Price closed below every major average we track and tagged the 20-session low at $55.50. The daily pivot at $55.93 is the first nearby reference above the market.
Scenarios
Bullish case. If December silver closes back above the daily pivot at $55.93 and then clears first resistance at $56.36, second resistance at $57.18 comes into focus. A move back toward the 20-day average at $61.75 would require softer dollar or yield pressure.
Bearish case. If the contract settles below Wednesday’s low of $55.50 and first support at $55.12, second support at $54.69 is the next calculated reference, extending the post-CPI decline.
Neutral case. If price chops between roughly $55.12 and $56.36 while RSI stays near 30 ahead of the Fed meeting, the market is consolidating after a large one-day flush.
Invalidation of the cautious working view: a daily close back above the 20-day average at $61.75.
Key Levels
| Level | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 20-session high | $66.94 | Intraday high, 17 Sep to 14 Oct window |
| 50-day average | $64.10 | Simple average of closes |
| 20-day average | $61.75 | Simple average of closes |
| Pivot resistance R2 | $57.18 | Classic pivot, 14 October bar |
| Pivot resistance R1 | $56.36 | Classic pivot, 14 October bar |
| 14 October high | $56.75 | Intraday high (Yahoo Dec) |
| Daily pivot | $55.93 | Classic pivot, 14 October bar |
| 14 October settlement | $55.55 | Yahoo Dec; DJ/Morningstar $55.550 |
| 14 October / 20-session low | $55.50 | Intraday low |
| Pivot support S1 | $55.12 | Classic pivot, 14 October bar |
| Pivot support S2 | $54.69 | Classic pivot, 14 October bar |
| 200-day average | $72.28 | Simple average (overhead) |
Events to Watch
- Thursday 15 October, 8:30 a.m. ET (5:30 p.m. PKT): September producer price index, retail sales and weekly jobless claims, per major market calendars.
- Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October: Federal Open Market Committee meeting, per the Federal Reserve’s 2026 calendar.
- Tuesday 10 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. PKT after U.S. clocks change on 1 November): October CPI, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule.
- Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December: December FOMC meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections, per the Federal Reserve calendar.
Follow related coverage on our Markets Live page.
Final Outlook
COMEX December silver finished 14 October deeply below its short- and long-term averages, with RSI near 30 and negative MACD momentum, after the September CPI report. The working view is cautious while the contract remains under the daily pivot at $55.93 and far under the 20-day average at $61.75. That cautious view would be invalidated by a daily close back above $61.75. The Fed meeting on 27 and 28 October is the next major policy checkpoint.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial or investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary, September 2026
- Federal Reserve Board, FOMC meeting calendars
- Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar, Comex Silver settlement Data Talk, 14 October 2026 ($55.550, -6.10%)
- Yahoo Finance delayed daily bars for COMEX December silver (SI=F); Kitco News precious-metals session reports, 14 October 2026 (spot labeled separately)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve rates; CME Group metals market commentary, 14 October 2026
