Key Points
- The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday, Oct. 2, at 5.28%, one basis point below its 2026 closing high of 5.29% on Sept. 30, according to Treasury data.
- Brent crude settled at $102.25 a barrel and WTI at $91.11 on Friday, as weekend tanker strikes near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risk in focus.
- As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 stood at 7,722.72 (down 0.27% for the week), the Nasdaq Composite at 27,190.86 (up 0.45%) and the Dow at 51,176.96 (down 1.26%).
- Minutes of the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting, where it raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, are due Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 2 p.m. ET.
Wall Street heads into the week of Oct. 5 with two numbers setting the mood: a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and Brent crude above $100. A soft jobs report gave stocks a lift on Friday, but the bond and oil markets will decide whether that bounce can broaden. All prices and yields below are Friday, Oct. 2 closing levels.
What happened
The Labor Department reported Friday that the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Revisions cut a combined 60,000 jobs from July and August. The weak count pulled down bets on another Fed hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting to about 23% from roughly 64% a week earlier, based on CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters.
Stocks rallied on the news. The S&P 500 gained 0.73%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19% after touching an intraday record, and the Dow added 0.49%. Even so, the S&P 500 and the Dow logged their fourth weekly loss in five weeks.
Bonds told a different story. The 10-year yield dipped after the report, then reversed and finished at 5.28% on the Treasury’s daily par yield curve, up from 5.17% a week earlier. The 30-year closed at 5.63%.
Latest development
Oil eased slightly on Friday after G7 leaders agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel through the International Energy Agency. Brent slipped 6 cents and WTI fell $1.76.
Over the weekend, the risk picture worsened. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported a tanker hit about four nautical miles east of Oman on Saturday and another struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, CNBC reported. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the strait would stay closed until Tehran’s conditions are met, and Yemen’s Houthis claimed an attack on an Aramco facility in Riyadh, though Saudi authorities had not commented on the report, according to CNBC. Monday’s open will be the first market reaction to those events.
Why it matters
Important levels as of Friday’s close
| Market | Close (Fri, Oct. 2) | Friday change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | +0.73% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,190.86 | +1.19% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,176.96 | +0.49% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.28% | +0.04 pt |
| Brent crude (per barrel) | $102.25 | -$0.06 |
| WTI crude (per barrel) | $91.11 | -$1.76 |
Sources: Reuters (indexes, oil), U.S. Treasury (yields).
Fundamental drivers
Higher long-term yields raise borrowing costs for companies and households and lower the present value of future profits, which hits rate-sensitive stocks hardest. That pressure shows in market breadth: CNBC noted the S&P 500 sits about 1% below its mid-August record, while an equal-weighted version of the index is down almost 6% from its own peak. For American households, the 10-year also anchors mortgage rates, and $100 oil feeds directly into fuel and travel costs.
The Fed is the other driver. Its September statement raised the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4%, and the weak jobs report has made a second straight hike less likely. Our guide to how the federal funds rate reaches your wallet explains why that matters beyond Wall Street.
What happens next
Upcoming catalysts (all times ET)
- Monday, Oct. 5: S&P Global services PMI at 9:45 a.m.; ISM services PMI at 10 a.m., where FactSet consensus is 55.9 versus 55.4 in August.
- Tuesday, Oct. 6: Trade balance at 8:30 a.m.; Treasury auctions $58 billion of 3-year notes; Constellation Brands reports after the close.
- Wednesday, Oct. 7: $39 billion 10-year note auction; FOMC minutes at 2 p.m.
- Thursday, Oct. 8: Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m.; $22 billion 30-year bond auction; PepsiCo earnings.
- Friday, Oct. 9: University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) at 10 a.m.; Delta Air Lines earnings, a read on fuel costs and travel demand.
Bullish scenario
If the auctions draw solid demand and the minutes suggest policymakers are comfortable waiting, a retreat in the 10-year from the 5.3% area could help the rally spread beyond the largest tech names. A calmer week in the Gulf that lets Brent drift back below $100 would add support.
Bearish scenario
A hot ISM services price reading, weak auction demand or minutes that lean toward more tightening could push yields to new highs. Further tanker attacks or confirmed damage to Saudi facilities could lift oil, squeezing the rate-sensitive and consumer stocks that have already lagged.
What traders should watch next
Watch the 10-year against its 5.29% closing high, Brent around the $100 line, and whether market breadth improves. After this week, attention turns to third-quarter earnings and the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 decision.
Related live coverage
Track stocks, oil, gold and Fed news through the week on our Markets Live center, and find business and news channels in one place on the Watch Live hub.
Sources
- U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (October 2026)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement (Sept. 16, 2026)
- Reuters via MarketScreener: Equities close higher as softer jobs data quiets rate-hike expectations (Oct. 2)
- CNBC: More tankers struck in the Middle East as Iran reiterates conditions (Oct. 4)
- CNBC: Stock market outlook and calendar for Oct. 5-9
Featured image: The New York Stock Exchange on Broad Street. Photo by Jakub Hałun via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0, cropped and resized.
